Performance

Measured results stay separated.

Live forward-tested results, historical backtests, simulated results, and pending signals are never combined.

Postgres is not configured; showing separated demo/backtest/simulation lanes only.

Live forward-tested results

Performance begins after publication.

Every signal lane carries its own category, checkpoint count, fee model, drawdown path, and calibration gap before results are compared.

Matured0

Win rate0%

Profit factor0.00

Drawdown0.00%

Matured0signals

Closed checkpoints with realized outcomes.

Pending0signals

Open records still waiting for outcome windows.

Win rate0%directional

Directional calls that resolved in the expected direction.

Expectancy0.00%avg return

Average gross return per matured signal.

Profit factor0.00gross gain/loss

Gross winners divided by gross losers.

Max drawdown0.00%path risk

Largest adverse path during the measured lane.

Calibration error0.00%confidence gap

Distance between stated confidence and realized hit rate.

Brier score0.000lower is better

Probability forecast error for resolved outcomes.

False positives0%failed positives

High-confidence positives that failed validation.

After fees0.00%net expectancy

Expectancy after fees and slippage assumptions.

Live forward-tested results

Production ledger only. Empty until real published signals mature in Postgres.

live forward test

Matured0signals

Closed checkpoints with realized outcomes.

Pending0signals

Open records still waiting for outcome windows.

Win rate0%directional

Directional calls that resolved in the expected direction.

Expectancy0.00%avg return

Average gross return per matured signal.

Profit factor0.00gross gain/loss

Gross winners divided by gross losers.

Max drawdown0.00%path risk

Largest adverse path during the measured lane.

Calibration error0.00%confidence gap

Distance between stated confidence and realized hit rate.

Brier score0.000lower is better

Probability forecast error for resolved outcomes.

False positives0%failed positives

High-confidence positives that failed validation.

After fees0.00%net expectancy

Expectancy after fees and slippage assumptions.

By asset

By rank

By market regime

By confidence

Historical backtests

Backtest rows are isolated from live forward-tested claims.

historical backtest

Matured184signals

Closed checkpoints with realized outcomes.

Pending0signals

Open records still waiting for outcome windows.

Win rate59%directional

Directional calls that resolved in the expected direction.

Expectancy+0.68%avg return

Average gross return per matured signal.

Profit factor1.42gross gain/loss

Gross winners divided by gross losers.

Max drawdown-11.80%path risk

Largest adverse path during the measured lane.

Calibration error+7.40%confidence gap

Distance between stated confidence and realized hit rate.

Brier score0.212lower is better

Probability forecast error for resolved outcomes.

False positives18%failed positives

High-confidence positives that failed validation.

After fees+0.49%net expectancy

Expectancy after fees and slippage assumptions.

By asset

BTC62 matured63%+0.62%

ETH48 matured56%+0.37%

SOL38 matured53%+0.16%

By rank

A44 matured68%+0.91%

B86 matured58%+0.38%

C54 matured50%+0.04%

By market regime

Risk-on88 matured64%+0.74%

Contested61 matured52%+0.11%

By confidence

70-8573 matured62%+0.63%

55-6982 matured55%+0.25%

Simulated results

Scenario and Monte Carlo outputs for research. Never mixed with live performance.

simulated

Matured4000signals

Closed checkpoints with realized outcomes.

Pending0signals

Open records still waiting for outcome windows.

Win rate57%directional

Directional calls that resolved in the expected direction.

Expectancy+0.41%avg return

Average gross return per matured signal.

Profit factor1.22gross gain/loss

Gross winners divided by gross losers.

Max drawdown-21.00%path risk

Largest adverse path during the measured lane.

Calibration error+11.00%confidence gap

Distance between stated confidence and realized hit rate.

Brier score0.247lower is better

Probability forecast error for resolved outcomes.

False positives23%failed positives

High-confidence positives that failed validation.

After fees+0.22%net expectancy

Expectancy after fees and slippage assumptions.

By asset

BTC1000 matured60%+0.34%

ETH1000 matured57%+0.21%

By rank

A/B2200 matured61%+0.43%

C/D1800 matured52%-0.02%

By market regime

Expansion1550 matured62%+0.51%

Stress1120 matured49%-0.28%

By confidence

High1480 matured63%+0.55%

Medium1980 matured55%+0.10%

Demo data

Included sample records for interface verification only.

demo

Matured2signals

Closed checkpoints with realized outcomes.

Pending2signals

Open records still waiting for outcome windows.

Win rate100%directional

Directional calls that resolved in the expected direction.

Expectancy+2.30%avg return

Average gross return per matured signal.

Profit factor2.70gross gain/loss

Gross winners divided by gross losers.

Max drawdown-0.60%path risk

Largest adverse path during the measured lane.

Calibration error+4.00%confidence gap

Distance between stated confidence and realized hit rate.

Brier score0.160lower is better

Probability forecast error for resolved outcomes.

False positives0%failed positives

High-confidence positives that failed validation.

After fees+2.14%net expectancy

Expectancy after fees and slippage assumptions.

By asset

BTC1 matured100%+2.90%

SOL1 matured100%+1.60%

By rank

A1 matured100%+2.90%

C+1 matured100%+1.60%

By market regime

Risk-on1 matured100%+2.90%

Contested1 matured100%+1.60%

By confidence

75-851 matured100%+2.90%

60-701 matured100%+1.60%

Immutable signal records

Published signal audit trail.

BTC - Coinbase + Binance composite

sig-btc-2026-07-04

demo

Directionbullish

Entry$64,820

Targets$67,200 / $69,800

Invalidation$61,200

Confidence81

RegimeRisk-on, macro sensitive

1hmeasured+0.48% net

4hmeasured+1.26% net

24hmatured+2.90% net

7dpendingPending

30dpendingPending

expirationpendingPending

ETH - Coinbase + Binance composite

sig-eth-2026-07-04

demo

Directionbullish

Entry$3,430

Targets$3,580 / $3,740

Invalidation$3,180

Confidence69

RegimeConstructive, BTC-led

1hpendingPending

4hpendingPending

24hpendingPending

7dpendingPending

30dpendingPending

expirationpendingPending

SOL - Binance + Coinbase composite

sig-sol-2026-07-04

demo

Directionbearish

Entry$148.90

Targets$139.50 / $132.00

Invalidation$158.40

Confidence63

RegimeMomentum contested

1hmeasured+0.20% net

4hmeasured+1.60% net

24hpendingPending

7dpendingPending

30dpendingPending

expirationpendingPending

LINK - Coinbase + Binance composite

sig-link-2026-07-04

demo

Directionbullish

Entry$15.74

Targets$17.20 / $18.60

Invalidation$14.10

Confidence66

RegimeInfrastructure rotation

1hpendingPending

4hpendingPending

24hpendingPending

7dpendingPending

30dpendingPending

expirationpendingPending